A publication of the Kentucky Center for Public Service Journalism

State receipts for October down 6 percent from year ago; sales tax growth exceeds 5% for second month

State Budget Director John Chilton reported that October’s General Fund receipts were $51 million less than what was collected last October, a decrease of 6 percent.  Total revenues for the month were $798.4 million, compared to $849.4 million during October 2016.

Receipts have increased 0.6 percent for the first four months of the fiscal year and need to grow 3.1 percent over the final eight months of FY18 to achieve the official revenue estimate of $10,718.8 million.
Road Fund receipts for October totaled $119.6 million, a 0.5 percent decrease from October 2016 levels.  Year-to-date Road Fund receipts have decreased 0.5 percent.   Based on year-to-date collections, Road Fund receipts can fall 2.7 percent and still meet the official FY18 estimate of $1,478.2 million. 

Chilton noted that the drop in October General Fund revenues was adversely affected by a one-time event, as well as a timing issue. 

Corporation income and LLET collections were hindered by a one-time, multi-year collection settlement of $32 million which inflated last October’s numbers. Property tax collections fell largely due to a timing issue in the public service account.  Not all news was discouraging, however, as October sales tax growth exceeded five percent for the second consecutive month.  The Consensus Forecasting Group officially revised the FY18 General Fund estimate at their most recent meeting on October 13.  The new, official estimate calls for General Fund growth of 2.3 percent for the current year.” As noted, receipts have increased 0.6 percent for the first four months of the fiscal year.  This causes concern that General Funds receipts will achieve the growth needed to achieve the CFG’s official revenue estimate of $10,718.8 million.
Among the major accounts:

• Corporation income tax receipts fell 74.4 percent.  Year-to-date receipts have decreased 8.2 percent.
• Individual income tax collections declined 3.3 percent.  Receipts are up 1.4 percent for the first four months of FY18.
• Sales and use tax receipts grew 5.4 percent in October and are up 1.9 percent for the year. 
• Property tax collections decreased 67.0 percent in October, and are down 27.9 percent year-to-date. Large swings in property tax revenues are typical in the fall months as the bulk of receipts in this category are received between November and January.
• Cigarette tax receipts fell 18.0 percent in October and are down 7.4 percent for the first four months of the fiscal year.
• Coal severance tax receipts fell 13.9 percent in October but have grown 0.5 percent year-to-date. 
• Lottery revenues grew 2.6 percent in October but are down 3.4 percent for the year.

Road Fund receipts decreased 0.5 percent in October as a small increase in motor vehicle usage tax receipts was offset by a decline in motor fuels taxes.  Year-to-date Road Fund collections have declined 0.5 percent.  Motor fuels taxes fell 3.2 percent in October and have fallen 0.7 percent for the year.  Motor vehicle usage tax collections grew 5.1 percent for the month but have decreased 2.2 percent through the first four months of the year.  License and privilege revenue fell 4.7 percent in October but has increased 4.5 percent for the year.  Nontax receipts fell 7.6 percent for the month and are off 3.4 percent for the year.

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