Don Owen: Despite its unstable appearance, Horizon League hoops should be entertaining in 2019-20

Detroit Mercy is banned from postseason play, at least for the moment. Cleveland State is in complete shambles, having fired its entire coaching staff earlier this month amid a tumultuous offseason of stunning exits by key underclassmen.

Throw in the fact Oakland unexpectedly lost a pair of starters due to the never-ending conga line of NCAA transfers — much to the dismay of Golden Grizzlies veteran head coach Greg Kampe — and it’s easy to see why the Horizon League has an unstable appearance going into the 2019-20 men’s basketball season.

That could very well work to the advantage of programs such as Northern Kentucky University, which is in a bit of a reloading phase. The Norse lost the Horizon League’s best player (Drew McDonald) and top head coach (John Brannen) from last season’s championship squad that advanced to the NCAA Tournament. NKU also watched its entire recruiting class from the fall signing period de-commit and choose other schools after Brannen accepted the coaching position at Cincinnati.

But NKU welcomes back four starters, including the heir apparent to McDonald as the Horizon League’s best player in junior guard Jalen Tate. The Norse also hired an experienced basketball tactician in Darrin Horn, who previously spent time as the head coach at both Western Kentucky and South Carolina, to replace Brannen.

Compared to most of the Horizon League, NKU has been a pillar of offseason stability. Consider that:

•Detroit Mercy received a one-year ban from postseason play after scoring below the NCAA-mandated Academic Progress Rate level during the past four years. The Titans are banned from participating in the Horizon League Tournament as well as both the NCAA Tournament and NIT in 2019-20.

Detroit Mercy averaged a 920 APR score from 2014-18, 10 points shy of the needed total to be eligible for postseason play. The school has appealed the NCAA’s decision, but the Titans — who return the Horizon League’s top scorer in sophomore guard Antoine Davis (26.1 points per game) — will likely be sitting out of the postseason.

•Cleveland State booted head coach Dennis Felton and his staff on July 12, offering only vague comments from athletics director Scott Garrett for reasons on the dismissals. An alleged player mutiny — which resulted in the transfers of All-Horizon League guards Tyree Appleby and Rashad Williams, among others — might have been the undoing of Felton, who posted a 22-44 record in two seasons at Cleveland State.

College basketball coaches are fired in bunches every season, but how many are let go in mid-July? Felton, in fact, had been out on the road recruiting the day before his dismissal. His entire staff was punted as well.

At least nine Cleveland State players have entered the transfer portal, meaning the Vikings barely have enough scholarship performers on their current roster to compete in a Gus Macker 3-on-3 tournament. The new head coach is Dennis Gates, a former assistant at Florida State known for his ability to recruit. Gates’ first recruiting assignment at Cleveland State will be to convince enough bodies to stick around so the Vikings can conduct 5-on-5 scrimmages with scholarship players during practice.

•Oakland — which was slated to return all five starters and challenge for the Horizon League title — watched as shooting guard Jaevin Cumberland (17.2 points per game) and point guard Braden Norris (8.4 ppg, 5.2 assists per game) both chose to transfer. Those decisions didn’t sit well with Kampe, who expected both players would return to the Oakland lineup in 2019-20.

“Where in real life can you be working on a team and say ‘oh, screw it, I’m gonna go into a portal and see who else wants me?’ ” Kampe said during an interview with Mid-Major Madness in June. “It just doesn’t exist. I’m having a hard time with this, as you could tell.”

While Kampe can build around returning inside performers Xavier Hill-Mais (18.3 ppg, 7.2 rebounds per game) and Brad Brechting (9.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Oakland will miss the perimeter shooting of Cumberland and the floor leadership of Norris.

•In addition, IUPUI lost leading scorer Camron Justice (18.6 ppg) to Western Kentucky as a graduate transfer. Ironically, the Horizon League’s postseason tournament will be played at Indiana Farmers Coliseum, which is the off-campus home venue for IUPUI men’s basketball. But the Jaguars, who were already missing two key inside players as a result of graduation, could find themselves near the bottom of the standings with the unexpected loss of Justice.

In other words, Indiana Farmers Coliseum might just be a neutral court for the Horizon League Tournament semifinals in March as IUPUI doesn’t figure to advance that far.

SO WHAT’S THE BIG DEAL, you ask? Before the summer drama unfolded, Cleveland State appeared of capable of being a major factor in the Horizon League. In addition to Appleby and Williams, the Vikings were supposed to add St. Francis (N.Y.) transfer Rasheem Dunn — who averaged 15.4 points per game two years ago — to the lineup in 2019-20. Dunn, however, bolted from Cleveland State after the firing of Felton and is considering Arkansas as his next stop.

A backcourt of Appleby (who’s now at Florida), Williams (now at Oakland) and Dunn would have immediately shifted Cleveland State from cellar-dweller to legit Horizon League contenders.

ISN’T THAT NORSE NEMESIS FROM LOUISVILLE, you ask? Senior power forward Jaalam Hill (11.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who ignited Cleveland State’s late-season upset of NKU at BB&T Arena, is also among those considering leaving the program. Hill is a native of Louisville and a graduate of Waggener High School. He poured in 26 points and grabbed 12 rebounds to lead Cleveland State to an 83-77 win at NKU on Feb. 23, snapping the Norse’s home winning streak at 20.

SO WHO’S THE HORIZON LEAGUE FAVORITE, you ask? The easy pick would be Wright State, which features the league’s most dominant big man, 6-foot-9, 280-pound Loudon Love, among three returning starters. The Raiders also regain the services of 6-foot-5 sophomore guard Jaylon Hall, who redshirted last season after averaging 9.1 points per game as a freshman in 2017-18.

But don’t count out Illinois-Chicago, NKU and Youngstown State — yes, Youngstown State — as serious contenders to win the Horizon League title.

Illinois-Chicago returns all five starters from a team that beat Wright State twice and split with NKU. The Flames feature a three-guard attack of Marcus Ottey (14.8 ppg), Tarkus Ferguson (15.5 ppg) and Godwin Boahen (14.8 ppg) that is arguably the best backcourt trio in the Horizon League.

Also returning for Illinois-Chicago are 6-foot-8 forwards Jordan Blount (9.3 ppg), Michael Diggins (6.7 ppg) and Rob Howard (6.2 ppg), a trio of experienced inside performers. Junior swingman Jamie Ahale is a long-range shooting threat, and his 3-pointer in the closing seconds last season gave the Flames a 69-67 win over NKU in Chicago.

NKU welcomes back Tate, a 6-foot-6 defensive wizard who also became an accomplished scorer (13.7 ppg) last season. Tate is without question the best all-around player in the Horizon League, having also grabbed 4.4 rebounds per game while dishing out 4.1 assists per contest.

NKU senior guard Tyler Sharpe, one of the toughest competitors in the nation, returns after averaging 14.4 ppg. Sharpe also knocked down 90 shots from 3-point range and collected 52 steals to lead NKU in both categories. Senior forward Dantez Walton (11.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and sophomore guard Trevon Faulkner (4.7 ppg, 59.1 percent from the field) also return to the Norse lineup.

For NKU to repeat as Horizon League champions, sophomore forward Adrian Nelson (2.8 ppg) needs to emerge as a major factor inside. Nelson, a 6-foot-7 leaper with good strength, displayed glimpses of becoming a dominant rebounder in limited playing time last season.

On paper, Youngstown State appears loaded and ready to challenge for the Horizon League title. Sophomore guard Darius Quisenberry averaged 13.8 ppg and 3.8 assists per contest last season, while junior forward Naz Bohannon (7.8 ppg, 8.3 rpg) is an outstanding rebounder. Junior guard Garrett Covington averaged 10.7 ppg last season, while senior guard Devin Morgan chipped in 9.5 ppg and buried a team-leading 60 shots from 3-point range.

Newcomer Jamir Thomas, a 6-foot-8, 250-pound forward who averaged 14.6 ppg and 7.3 rpg last season at Garden City Community College, will provide inside muscle for the Penguins. Youngstown State also added 6-foot-3 guard Christian Bentley, who averaged 12 points last season at Iowa Western Community College. Bentley played at Siena in 2017-18 and is expected to make an impact.

SO, ARE YOU GOING TO GIVE US YOUR PREDICTIONS, you ask? Yep. All of this is subject to change, given how quickly Cleveland State dropped from being a potential contender to a likely resident of the Horizon League’s cellar.

1. Illinois-Chicago
2. Northern Kentucky
3. Wright State
4. Youngstown State
5. Oakland
6. Detroit Mercy*
7. Green Bay
8. IUPUI
9. Milwaukee
10. Cleveland State
*ineligible for Horizon League Tournament

Also keep in mind this is just how I believe the regular-season standings will play out, not the Horizon League Tournament champion. As we’ve consistently learned in recent years, the No. 1 seed in the Horizon League never wins the automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament. That should give Cleveland State fans a bit of optimism for the 2019-20 season. Well, then again, maybe not.

Contact Don Owen at don@nkytrib.com and follow him on Twitter at @dontribunesport