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NFL Fantasy Football Lister: Top Running Back risers and fallers for the 2018 regular season


By Marc Hardin
NKyTribune contributor

Among running backs, it’s safe to say Steelers no-show Le’Veon Bell was fantasy football’s greatest disappointment in 2018 and undrafted Broncos rookie Phillip Lindsay was the biggest surprise.

The difference in their positional rankings, from preseason to postseason, tells their divergent stories.

Bell, the consensus No. 11 running back heading into the regular season, finished tied for 154th in standard league fantasy points scored, the result of an unexpected season-long contract holdout with the Steelers. A total of 153 NFL running backs scored at least a fraction of a point in 2018. Bell, among the top fantasy backs from 2014-17, posted no statistics because he never reported, throwing many unprepared fantasy team owners for a loop.

The unheralded Lindsay, by contrast, was largely unranked at fantasy draft time due to the perception he was behind both Royce Freeman (a top-20 preseason back) and Devontae Booker (a top-50 preseason back) on the Denver depth chart. Lindsay, who signed as a free agent out of the University of Colorado, became the first undrafted offensive rookie to make the Pro Bowl following a 1,037-yard rushing campaign with 10 touchdowns. Though he wasn’t able to save the season for the mediocre Broncos, Lindsay salvaged the year for many pleasantly surprised fantasy owners who snagged him off September’s free-agent scrap heap as nothing more than a quick fix.

Bell and Lindsay represent the extremes between what mainstream media expected and what we actually received in 2018, pointing to the inexact science that is fantasy prognostication. Other running backs performed just as expected, giving their fantasy owners reason to boast of hitting the bull’s eye.

With an eye toward next season, I always find it instructive to compare expectations with results from the current season. One simple way to do this is to contrast preseason positional rankings with end-of-season rankings. With those in hand, we can derive a differential for each player then re-rank them according to the disparity between draft-day rankings and final rankings. We can create subsets of these players with further scrutiny, giving us a better idea of what happened during the wild and wacky 2018 fantasy season.

For example, Lindsay outperformed his average draft-day positional ranking of 114th by 102 spots by virtue of his final ranking of 12th. Among running backs who either started or finished the season in the top 60, Lindsay was the only back who outdid his consensus preseason ranking by more than 96 spots, the equivalent of moving from fourth to first on an NFL depth chart.

This week, we’ll take a look at the running backs who rose to the occasion in 2018. They’ll likely be some of the most over-hyped backs going into next season’s drafts, which is helpful offseason knowledge as you eyeball talent during the upcoming NFL playoffs. We’ll also take a look at those backs who fell flat, potentially giving you a leg up on identifying undervalued players for 2019 and those who could bust. Next week, we’ll put wide receivers under the microscope using consensus preseason rankings and final NFL statistics.

RUNNING BACK RISERS

These running backs helped fantasy clubs significantly at some point in the season or at critical junctures. (Listed side-by-side at left of each entry is player’s preseason ranking-final ranking; listed at far right is ranking differential. Players are ranked by greatest differential.)

114-12. Phillip Lindsay, Broncos 102
138-52. Josh Adams, Eagles 86
121-51. Damien Williams, Chiefs 70
120-57. Jaylen Samuels, Steelers 63
103-44. Gus Edwards, Ravens 59
100-42. Wendell Smallwood, Eagles 58
97-43. Jalen Richard, Raiders 54
95-54. Elijah McGuire, Jets 41
94-53. Ito Smith, Falcons 41
51-15. Nick Chubb, Browns 36
68-34. Mike Davis, Seahawks 34
41-7. James Conner, Steelers 34
45-11. James White, Patriots  34 
70-38. Nyheim Hines, Colts 32
56-27. Austin Ekeler, Chargers 29
57-30. T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars 27
58-32. Latavius Murray, Vikings 26
43-19. Marlon Mack, Colts 24
39-16. Adrian Peterson, Redskins 23
44-23. Aaron Jones, Packers  21
55-35. Doug Martin, Raiders 20
59-41. Frank Gore, Dolphins 18
42-24. Matt Breida, 49ers 18
34-18. Tevin Coleman, Falcons 16
32-17. Tarik Cohen, Bears 15
26-14. Chris Carson, Seahawks 12
35-26. Peyton Barber, Bucs 9
33-25. Sony Michel, Patriots 8 
10-3. Christian McCaffrey, Panthers 7
15-9. Joe Mixon, Bengals 6

The big risers of note are McCaffrey, who became a top-5 back, and Conner and Mixon, who emerged as top-10 studs. Lindsay, White, Carson and Chubb became top-15 must-have positional targets while Peterson, Cohen, Coleman and Mack ascended into the top 20. For the veteran Peterson, it was an impressive re-ascension. Also of note, Adams rose from fifth on the Eagles’ depth chart to No. 1. The Chiefs’ Williams, the Steelers’ Samuels and the Ravens’ Edwards all went from fourth to fantasy force.

RUNNING BACK FALLERS

These backs hurt your club if you drafted them as high as the preseason consensus placed them. If you failed to handcuff the right guys or your backup plan short-circuited, it hurt even worse.

11-154. Le’Veon Bell, Steelers  -143
12-109. Devonta Freeman, Falcons -97
17-78. Jay Ajayi, Eagles -61 
25-80. Rex Burkhead, Patriots -55
27-61. Alfred Morris, 49ers -34
24-56. Marshawn Lynch, Raiders -32
7-37. Leonard Fournette, Jaguars -30 
12-40. LeSean McCoy, Bills -28
8-31. Dalvin Cook, Vikings -23
19-39. Alex Collins, Ravens -20

It didn’t hurt as much while weathering tough times faced by these falling backs. Much was not expected of them to start. With the noteworthy exception of surging CJ Anderson, call them mildly disappointing.

40-100. Ronald Jones, Bucs  -60
47-76. Jordan Wilkins, Colts -29
38-66. Chris Thompson, Redskins -28 
48-68. Devontae Booker, Broncos -20
31-48. Duke Johnson, Browns  -17 
46-58. C.J. Anderson, Panthers/Rams  -12
37-46. Jamaal Williams, Packers -9
52-60. Giovani Bernard, Bengals -8

Excluding late-blooming Jordan Howard, these backs were outright disappointments in 2018 and hindered fantasy owners who drafted them at or very near the consensus ranking.

30-59. Rashaad Penny, Seahawks -29
19-47. Royce Freeman, Broncos -28
29-44. Carlos Hyde, Browns/Jaguars -15
23-36. Dion Lewis, Titans -13
2-10. David Johnson, Cardinals -8
21-28. Mark Ingram, Saints -7
14-20. Jordan Howard, Bears -6

GOT WHAT YOU PAID FOR

Though it was a wild ride to what was expected for Derrick Henry, the consensus got it right with these dozen backs, pegging each to within three spots of his final positional ranking. In a boost to the prognosticators, 11 backs among the consensus preseason top 36, a robust 30 percent, were basically nailed by so-called experts.

9-6. Melvin Gordon, Chargers 3 
16-13. Derrick Henry, Titans 3 
36-33. Kerryon Johnson, Lions 3
6-4. Alvin Kamara, Saints 2
4-2. Saquon Barkley, Giants 2
22-22. Lamar Miller, Texans 0
1-1. Todd Gurley, Rams 0
28-29. Isaiah Crowell, Jets -1
49-50. LeGarrette Blount, Lions -1
3-5. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys -2
5-8. Kareem Hunt, Chiefs -3
18-21. Kenyan Drake, Dolphins -3

The above group can be divided into distinguished performers such as Gurley and Barkley, disappointments like Drake and Crowell, players who were both (Gordon and Hunt) and guys like Blount who weren’t expected to matter much from the beginning. In the statistically rare case of the decidedly middle-tier Miller, he met expectations perfectly, matching the mighty Gurley.

DIDN’T MATTER THIS YEAR

Big things were not expected from any of these running backs so the impact of their improvement or lack of improvement in the positional rankings was minimal.

71-55. Chris Ivory, Bills 16
62-49. Alfred Blue, Texans 13
53-65. Theo Riddick, Lions -12
54-69. Bilal Powell, Jets -15
50-71. Ty Montgomery, Ravens -21

COULD MATTER NEXT YEAR

It might be a good idea in 2019 to pay attention to backs listed 39 to 45 in draft-day rankings. All but one back in that range greatly improved his stock as the 2018 season progressed, providing steals for their purloiners. (Listed in order of preseason ranking.)

39-16. Adrian Peterson, Redskins 23
40-100. Ronald Jones, Bucs  -60
41-7. James Conner, Steelers 34
42-24. Matt Breida, 49ers 18
43-19. Marlon Mack, Colts 24
44-23. Aaron Jones, Packers  21
45-11. James White, Patriots  34


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