By Marc Hardin
NKyTribune contributor
As suggested in this space the past few weeks, it can be instructive to compare preseason player expectations with final season results before moving on to the fantasy offseason. It’s never too early for serious fantasy team owners to begin stockpiling helpful info for the following year. Deciding who are risers and fallers at the various positions is a helpful exercise when it comes to player valuation.
One easy way of doing this is comparing players’ preseason positional rankings with their actual end-of-season rankings, figure the difference, then re-rank the players according to the differential. It’s always good to have a leg up on the competition and this week’s lists includes 94 names to know heading into 2019. We’ve already taken a look at running backs and wide receivers. Next, a call to arms.
QUARTERBACK RISERS
These players stepped up and increased their value beyond the expectations of preseason prognosticators. In the memorable case of Patrick Mahomes, expectations were wildly exceeded. As for Matt Ryan, he turned in another elite season for patient-drafting owners who know by now he’s very likely to deliver great numbers no matter where he’s listed in preseason rankings. Baker Mayfield is the lone QB who began the season outside the top 32 and finished in the top 16. Jared Goff, at the controls of one of the league’s most potent offenses, is another notable riser. (Listed side-by-side at the left of each entry is player’s consensus preseason ranking and final ranking; listed at far right is ranking differential. Players are ranked by greatest differential.)
36-16. Baker Mayfield, Browns 20
16-2. Matt Ryan, Falcons 14
13-1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs 12
19-7. Jared Goff, Rams 12
31-21. Josh Allen, Bills 10
28-19. Case Keenum, Broncos 9
18-10. Dak Prescott, Cowboys 8
37-29. Lamar Jackson, Ravens 8
10-3. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers 7
24-17. Eli Manning, Giants 7
34-28. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bucs 6
20-15. Mitchell Trubisky, Bears 5
23-18. Derek Carr, Raiders 5
26-22. Jameis Winston, Bucs 4
QUARTERBACK FALLERS
The 49ers committed nearly $90 million in guaranteed money for the services of up-and-coming QB Jimmy Garoppolo, so fantasy owners aren’t the only ones disappointed in the anointed one’s truncated season by the bay. Tabbed to be a potential top-10 source of passing points, he didn’t get past Week 3 before being felled by a torn ACL. There were other injury casualties at the position but some such as the normally reliable Matthew Stafford just plain disappointed, contributing mightily to their falls. Thanks to Mayfield, Tyrod Taylor went out of fashion faster than the mood ring. A handful of falling QBs could be joining Taylor without a regular gig if they don’t turn things around. I wouldn’t read too much into the fall-offs by Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson but Tom Brady, as whisperers insist, may no longer be elite. Cam Newton remains an enigma with tantalizing upside.
14-40. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers -26
21-41. Tyrod Taylor, Browns -20
6-23. Carson Wentz, Eagles -17
15-31. Alex Smith, Redskins -16
2-14. Tom Brady, Patriots -12
3-12. Cam Newton, Panthers -9
11-20. Matthew Stafford, Lions -9
17-24. Marcus Mariota, Titans -7
1-6. Aaron Rodgers, Packers -5
4-9. Russell Wilson, Seahawks -5
9-13. Kirk Cousins, Vikings -4
22-26. Blake Bortles, Jaguars -4
27-30. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins -3
GOT WHAT YOU PAID FOR
For the most part, these players’ preseason positional rankings were dead-on with Drew Brees and Andy Dalton representing bull’s eyes. Brees is yet another example of a high-caliber QB who could be had later in drafts.
Andy Dalton
29-27. Sam Darnold, Jets 2
7-5. Andrew Luck, Colts 2
38-36. Nick Foles, Eagles 2
5-4. Deshaun Watson, Texans 1
12-11. Philip Rivers, Chargers 1
25-25. Andy Dalton, Bengals 0
8-8. Drew Brees, Saints 0
30-32. Joe Flacco, Ravens -2
32-34. Josh Rosen, Cardinals -2
DIDN’T MATTER MUCH THIS SEASON
Though the San Francisco backups had their moments, very little was expected from these signal callers so their impact on the rankings were generally inconsequential. Likewise, none of these quarterbacks are expected to make much impact next season unless of course Garoppolo is significantly less than 100 percent.
121-30. Nick Mullens, 49ers 91
75-39. Josh Johnson, Redskins 36
62-38. Brock Osweiler, Dolphins 24
54-35. Jeff Driskel, Bengals 19
56-37. C.J. Beathard, 49ers 19
33-52. Sam Bradford, Cardinals -19
39-112. Jacoby Brissett, Colts -73
40-114. Kyle Lauletta, Giants -74
MIGHT MATTER NEXT SEASON
Five of the preseason top six finished at least five spots below their rank, led by Brady’s fall of 12 spots. Six of the top nine finished below their preseason rank. Another look at the preseason consensus top 20 quarterbacks, this time with 20-20 hindsight. (Listed in order of preseason ranking.)
1-6. Aaron Rodgers, Packers -5
2-14. Tom Brady, Patriots -12
3-12. Cam Newton, Panthers -9
4-9. Russell Wilson, Seahawks -5
5-4. Deshaun Watson, Texans 1
6-23. Carson Wentz, Eagles -17
7-5. Andrew Luck, Colts 2
8-8. Drew Brees, Saints 0
9-13. Kirk Cousins, Vikings -4
Six of the preseason top 10 through 20 outperformed their rank by at least five spots, led by Ryan’s rise of 14. In all, seven QBs with a preseason ranking of 10-20 outperformed their rank. Although everybody’s going to want Mahomes next season, the big takeaway from the 2018 preseason rankings and subsequent final season rankings is it remains the better option to wait on a QB in the selection process if you want to create maximum draft value. The cynic would suggest you could also miss out on Mahomes and whiff on Garoppolo while doing that, so buyer beware.
10-3. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers 7
11-20. Matthew Stafford, Lions -9
12-11. Philip Rivers, Chargers 1
13-1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs 12
14-40. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers -26
15-31. Alex Smith, Redskins -16
16-2. Matt Ryan, Falcons 14
17-24. Marcus Mariota, Titans -7
18-10. Dak Prescott, Cowboys 8
19-7. Jared Goff, Rams 12
20-15. Mitchell Trubisky, Bears 5
TIGHT END RISERS
Moving on to the battered and bruised tight ends, where 11 of the top 50 preseason picks ended up on Injured Reserve and nine more missed significant chunks of the schedule. That’s 20 of the preseason top 50 — a mountainous 40 percent — who couldn’t be counted on for health reasons only. Others qualified as healthy disappointments. Ah, but there was gold in some of those hills especially if you drafted Jared Cook and happened upon Eric Ebron.
88-19. C.J. Uzomah, Bengals 69
38-15. Chris Herndon, Jets 23
39-16. Mark Andrews, Ravens 23
23-4. Eric Ebron, Colts 19
20-5. Jared Cook, Raiders 15
35-20. Dallas Goedert, Eagles 15
22-7. Austin Hooper, Falcons 15
24-10. O.J. Howard, Bucs 14
14-2. George Kittle, 49ers 12
32-22. Gerald Everett, Rams 10
28-21. Jesse James, Steelers 7
18-12. Vance McDonald, Steelers 6
12-8. David Njoku, Browns 4
9-6. Trey Burton, Bears 3
TIGHT END FALLERS
Ouch, injuries hurt! Advancing age doesn’t help. The days of drafting Gronk first at tight end are probably over now that Kittle, Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz are around.
5-92. Delanie Walker, Titans -87
15-65. Charles Clay, Bills -50
19-68. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jaguars -49
13-53. Tyler Eifert, Bengals -40
10-36. Jack Doyle, Colts -26
4-23. Greg Olsen, Panthers -19
17-27. Antonio Gates, Chargers -10
1-11. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots -10
26-33. Ricky Seals-Jones, Cardinals -7
6-13. Evan Engram, Giants -7
11-17. Jordan Reed, Redskins -6
8-14. Jimmy Graham, Packers -6
21-24. Benjamin Watson, Saints -3
GOT WHAT YOU PAID FOR
The preseason consensus nailed it with these tight ends though there was a world of difference between top-shelf Kelce and Ertz and the more pedestrian Kyle Rudolph, all of whom crammed into the season-ending top nine in standard leagues with various levels of success. Ertz was a bull’s eye.
27-25. Vernon Davis, Redskins 2
2-1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs 1
3-3. Zach Ertz, Eagles 0
7-9. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings -2
16-18. Cameron Brate, Bucs -2
DIDN’T MATTER MUCH THIS SEASON
The occasional Thomas fulfilled his promise in the wake of injuries, and a Smith emerged from anonymity for a moment or two. But, in the grand scheme of things, few of these players made noticeable impacts in the tight end rankings or on fantasy teams. None were projected to be in the top 24 and none finished among the top 24. However, as nondescript as this list of 18 might appear, it’s virtually guaranteed a handful will break out next season, so it’s always good to know their recent trajectories. This season’s Blake Jarwin and Ian Thomas could be next season’s Kittle and Cook.
105-38. Jason Croom, Bills 67
72-29. Ian Thomas, Panthers 43
66-28. Jordan Thomas, Texans 38
57-35. Rhett Ellison, Giants 22
47-31. Jonnu Smith, Titans 16
48-37. Demetrius Harris, Chiefs 11
50-39. Ed Dickson, Seahawks 11
43-34. Jeff Heuerman, Broncos 9
34-26. Blake Jarwin, Cowboys 8
37-30. Nick Vannett, Seahawks 7
36-32. Tyler Higbee, Rams 4
42-40. Levine Toilolo, Lions 2
29-42. Ryan Griffin, Texans -13
30-57. Hayden Hurst, Ravens -27
25-63. Mike Gesicki, Dolphins -38
33-82. Jake Butt, Broncos -49
31-81. Luke Willson, Lions -50
40-102. Tyler Kroft, Bengals -62
MIGHT MATTER NEXT SEASON
For owners who prefer waiting on tight ends and picking them late in the draft, it’s heartening to note the availability of several quality tight ends in the back end of most 2018 drafts. For example, just one of seven was a total dud from consensus preseason spots 18-24. Five of the other six in that range outperformed their preseason ranking by a whopping nine spots at minimum and finished among the top 12 at the position, with four in the top 10. Add Kittle, the preseason No. 14 tight end, and large-league drafters experienced potentially incredible value if they skated on thin ice and found themselves looking for a tight end after the consensus top 12 were off the board. (Listed in order of preseason ranking.)
18-12. Vance McDonald, Steelers 6
19-68. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jaguars -49
20-5. Jared Cook, Raiders 15
21-24. Benjamin Watson, Saints -3
22-7. Austin Hooper, Falcons 15
23-4. Eric Ebron, Colts 19
24-10. O.J. Howard, Bucs 14
Next week, we’ll finish with defense and special teams and do a rewind on kickers, to boot.
