By Marc Hardin
NKyTribune contributor
Well, that was fast. And completely crazy. The NFL’s 16-game regular season schedule has hit the one-quarter pole with considerable velocity and intrigue.
Speaking of, here are the guys off to the fastest starts that you least expected:
QB: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs): 1,200 passing yards, 14 touchdowns
RB: James Conner (Steelers): 4 starts, 396 total yards, 3 touchdowns
WR: Calvin Ridley (Falcons): 264 yards, 6 touchdowns
TE: Eric Ebron (Colts): 17 catches, 150 yards, 3 touchdowns
K: Cody Parkey (Bears): 9-for-10 on field goals, 39 points
DEF/ST: Browns: 31 fantasy points first 3 weeks
Hopefully, your fantasy teams have some similar momentum behind them because your leagues are probably moving at a faster clip than the NFL. Fantasy leagues beginning their playoffs Week 13 reached the one-quarter pole two weeks ago. Vroom, vroom! That’s faster than Tyreek Hill. For owners in those leagues, there are already just eight weeks left to get in a position or stay in position to make the playoffs — either with or without Leonard Fournette.
Other brand names like Fournette who are stuck in first gear:
QB: Aaron Rodgers (Packers): zero 300-yard games, iffy knee
RB: Le’Veon Bell (Steelers): 1 long hold-out, unlimited stubbornness
WR: Keenan Allen (Chargers): 1 touchdown, tons of Chargers weapons
TE: Jimmy Graham (Packers): 1 touchdown, Rodgers’ iffy knee
K: Chris Boswell (Steelers) 13 lousy points, Bell’s stubbornness
DEF/ST: Chargers: 2 negative-scoring weeks, Joey Bosa out til Week 9
For leagues in action every week of the NFL regular season that feature one-week playoff games for four teams with a Week 17 championship, time is on their side with a 14-week regular season, plenty of time for Limping Leonard to find his giddy-up.
Other underperforming standouts who could finally be getting it in gear:
QB: Carson Wentz (Eagles): 20 points last week, Vikings up next
RB: Sony Michael (Patriots): 112 rush yards and 1 TD last week, Colts next
WR: Amari Cooper (Raiders): 128 yards and 1 TD last week, Chargers next
TE: Cameron Brate (Bucs): 2 TDs in 2 weeks, OJ Howard is hurt
K: Jake Elliott (Eagles): 11 points last week, Carson Wentz is back
DEF/ST: Patriots: 11 points last week, vs. Colts, Bills, Titans next 6 weeks
As for the rest of fantasy leagues, time is not quite running out on the season. But it might be lacing up its sneakers. For some of those team owners, it sure would be nice to know if David Johnson is ever going to do anything again.
DON’T WORRY, BE HAPPY
While I was banging my head to Quiet Riot, Guns N’ Roses and Metallica in the 1980s, there was this really annoying song on the radio by a guy I’d never heard of named Bobby McFerrin. Though I later grudgingly came to appreciate “Don’t Worry Be Happy” and its unusual place in history as the first a cappella song to reach No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, at the time I really didn’t like it because I couldn’t get it out of my head. It played on a permanent loop in my mind, worse than “Sussudio.”
When this vexatious one-hit wonder topped the chart the fall of 1988, displacing previous No. 1 “Sweet Child o’ Mine” by Guns N’ Roses, of course, I thought it was a travesty. That’s no real No. 1, I remember saying to no one in particular. No matter how many times I listened to “Don’t Worry Be Happy” or caught myself whistling its insidious melody, I still couldn’t embrace the song’s philosophy of denial. To me, it was an earworm. On the other hand, I was all in on Guns N’ Roses and their appetite for destroying rock and roll norms not to mention my ear drums. Big difference, you know. With GNR, stuck song syndrome was a welcome malady.
It’s kind of like fantasy football when you really think about it. When a confusing squad keeps playing the same repetitive notes every time out but looks pretty good on paper, and when the sound of drumming up something else is music to your ears, at some point you and only you have be the final arbiter of taste. Only you can decide what’s good (T.J. Yeldon, perhaps) and what’s not so good (Marquise Goodwin?) for you and your football team.
With a one-quarter sample size, sometimes it’s tough to decipher what’s real (Cooper Kupp) and what’s not real (Ryan Fitzpatrick). Who’s Jeckyll (Carlos Hyde) and who’s Hyde (Derrick Henry)? Who merits trust and who meets value? Who’s going to sustain success and who’s just a one-week wonder? Unless we’re talking about Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliott, it’s tough to know who you can trust week to week in the fog of fantasy, especially four games into a season featuring the likes of Mitchell Trubisky, a one-game world-beater so far, and Kenyan Drake, who’s scored fewer fantasy points than ancient teammate Frank Gore.
HAVE PATIENCE, BE RESOURCEFUL
Heading into Week 5, you should decide if your squad is lucky or good, unlucky or ill-equipped, and make necessary well-thought-out moves. Toward this end, try some healthy self-analysis. Are you truly in a good way with your roster or are you in a state of denial about your club? Is your stud a sleeping giant merely off to a slow start? Or is the early slumbering a sign of happier days ahead? Is your sleeper ready to wake up or is he going to keep hitting the snooze button?
For now, I would advise having patience with these players:
QB: Alex Smith (Redskins): Could break out this week vs. Saints D.
RB: Rashaad Penny (Seahawks): Can’t cut him yet, he still has a chance.
WR: Demaryius Thomas (Broncos): He eventually posts helpful numbers.
TE: David Njoku (Browns): Uptick in targets, yardage with Baker Mayfield.
K: Stephen Gostkowski: Not going to stay 18th-ranked fantasy kicker.
DEF/ST: Vikings: Mike Zimmer should be able to figure things out.
Meanwhile, the free-agent talent pool is shrinking by the week as true breakouts begin to reveal themselves amid the flukes, the frauds and the imminently injured.
Here are potentially new resources, some free-agent finds that may be available in your league:
QB: Derek Carr (Raiders): Owned in just 20 percent of leagues nationwide.
RB: Mike Davis (Seahawks): Got the nod with Chris Carson out, ran with it.
WR: Taylor Gabriel (Bears): Racking up targets with Anthony Miller out.
TE: Antonio Gates (Chargers): Old as dirt, TD dependent, scored last week.
K: Ryan Succop (Titans): Seventh-best but unowned in 80 percent of leagues.
DEF/ST: Redskins: 10th-best, decent every week and virtually unowned.
DUMP WHEN NECESSARY, KEEP PERSPECTIVE
There’s a premium on sound decision-making right now. Sometimes bye weeks force your hand, and you have to drop a valued player in order to add just the right one. In other instances, you have to make starting lineup choices with less than ideal options. If certain players fail to show signs of life, it’s no time to feel sentimental. You might have to dump them following some careful analysis. Maybe you’ve found yourself on the fence about a player or two and reached a day of reckoning. Is now the time when past mistakes and misdeeds are punished and paid for? Should he stay or should he go?
Point these folks toward the door:
QB: Dak Prescott (Cowboys): Nobody’s afraid of Dallas WRs but you should be.
RB: Dalvin Cook (Vikings): Injury risk. Hope for a big game then trade him.
WR: Kelvin Benjamin (Bills): It’s not going to happen, at least not this season.
TE: Charles Clay (Bills): Another lost cause in the vast wasteland of Buffalo.
K: Graham Gano: If you’re stuck with him, it’s probably time to get someone else.
DEF/ST: Saints: Last year’s 10th-ranked defense has holes and tough schedule.
Regardless of your situation, history has shown that there’s no need to get overly concerned yet about a 1-3 start, though we all know it’s not ideal. Many a 1-3 team has turned it around and won it all while just as many countless 3-1 squads have faltered after fast starts.
It’s nice being 4-0 and many of those powerhouses are legit. But there are a lot of lucky 4-0 teams out there yet to be compromised by the bye weeks and self-sabotage. Likewise, there are many incredibly unlucky 0-4 teams just now getting some key parts revved up. It’s easy to accept a 2-2 record any year because you’re very much right in the thick of things with plenty of slate left. Countless fantasy teams have made the postseason winner’s bracket with a 7-6 record, caught fire at the right time and run the table in the playoffs.
So, no worries, eh. Not right now. Not after four weeks. I’m really glad we had this talk.
Now, if I can just get that song out of my head.
Excellent article Marc.