By Marc Hardin
NKyTribune contributor
This is not a rush to judgment but there were a minuscule three 100-yard rushers in the NFL during Week 2. Insert exclamation mark here. There were four 100-yard rushers Week 1 for a grand total of seven instances when a running back rushed for 100 yards the first two weeks of the season. Here they are:
James Conner (Steelers) Week 1: 135 rushing yards
Todd Gurley (Rams) Week 1: 108 rushing yards
Saquon Barkley (Giants) Week 1: 106 rushing yards
Isaiah Crowell (Jets) Week 1: 102 rushing yards
Matt Breida (49ers) Week 2: 138 rushing yards
Tevin Coleman (Falcons) Week 2: 107 rushing yards
Phillip Lindsay (Broncos) Week 2: 107 rushing yards
Add in three 100-yard receiving efforts by a running back the first two weeks and you get a total of 10 instances when a running back reached 100 yards in a game either by rushing or receiving. While that does little to offset the whittling of 100-yard rushers, it’s worth at least a contented-face emoji. For these backs, it’s been better to receive:
Alvin Kamara (Saints) Week 1: 112 receiving yards
Melvin Gordon (Chargers) Week 1: 102 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey (Panthers) Week 2: 102 receiving yards
By comparison, there were 25 wide receivers — more than twice the total of running backs — who reached 100 yards. There were 14 during Week 1 and 11 in Week 2:
Michael Thomas (Saints) Week 1: 180 yards
Julio Jones (Falcons) Week 1: 169 yards
Tyreek Hill (Chiefs) Week 1: 169 yards
Mike Evans (Bucs) Week 1: 147 yards
DeSean Jackson (Bucs) Week 1: 146 yards
Randall Cobb (Packers) Week 1: 142 yards
Emmanuel Sanders (Broncos) Week 1: 135 yards
JuJu Smith-Schuster (Steelers) Week 1: 119 yards
Kenny Golladay (Lions) Week 1: 114 yards
Odell Beckham Jr. (Giants) Week 1: 111 yards
Keenan Allen (Chargers) Week 1: 108 yards
Kenny Stills (Dolphins) Week 1: 106 yards
Jarvis Landry (Browns) Week 1: 106 yards
Adam Thielen (Vikings) Week 1: 102 yards
Brandin Cooks, (Rams) Week 2: 159 yards
Adam Thielen (Vikings) Week 2: 131 yards
DeSean Jackson (Bucs) Week 2: 129 yards
Stefon Diggs (Vikings) Week 2: 128 yards
JuJu Smith-Schuster (Steelers) Week 2: 121 yards
Amari Cooper (Raiders) Week 2: 116 yards
Keelan Cole (Jaguars) Week 2: 116 yards
Will Fuller (Texans) Week 2: 113 yards
DeAndre Hopkins (Texans) Week 2: 110 yards
Golden Tate (Lions) Week 2: 109 yards
Sammy Watkins (Chiefs) Week 2: 100 yards
When you lower the total to 63 yards, the number a player must average per game over a full 16-game season to reach 1,000 yards, the disparity grows. Over the first two weeks of the NFL slate, there were 67 instances when a wide receiver reached 63 receiving yards, a whopping 39 of those coming in Week 2. By contrast, there were 25 occasions when a running back rushed for 63 yards, nine in Week 2.
When you add up the number of running backs who totaled 63 yards and 100 yards by both rushing and receiving, it still pales to the number of wide receivers who did the same thing, which is significant for fantasy purposes because we all know that receivers rarely rush the football during an era when receivers on many occasions outnumber backs 3-1 on the playing field.
Moving to touchdowns, the only scoring factors in some leagues, there were 42 instances when a running back scored at least one TD during the first two weeks compared to 73 occasions when a wide receiver scored a touchdown. So far, there have been seven instances of receivers scoring two or more TDs in a game. Running backs have put together two-TD games on six occasions. As you already know, receivers can also have a big advantage over running backs in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues where they score an extra point with each reception.
Here’s where we reach one of the conundrums of fantasy football, especially in leagues that utilize a flex spot. Prudence suggests that you stock up on running backs early in the draft because there are so few bell cow backs compared to the number of highly productive wide receivers. But common sense dictates that you play three receivers in your starting lineup, slotting one in your flex spot. Even if you have three stud running backs available here in the non-bye weeks, you’ve got to consider starting three top-flight wide receivers if you have them. Like it or not, you may be forced to start three receivers during the bye weeks and that’s not a bad thing.
BUYER BEWARE
I always say that outside the charade that has become the rampant bench-sitting Week 17, there are no flukier weeks of the fantasy football season than the first two when some defenses still need time to jell and certain offenses need more reps to get in sync. Others say Latin is a dead language. Wait. What? Latin isn’t dead. With every decision I make during the season, I have the same phrase that mazes through my mind: Caveat emptor.
There are some surprising early storylines that have left fantasy team owners wondering if it’s real or a really convincing fluke. Others are left on the horns of a dilemma: Should they be the early bird that catches the worm (and possibly release a productive player who’s off to a slow start)? Or should they look before they leap (possibly preventing the addition of a productive player who’s off to a fast start)? If you remember that Weeks 1 and 2 are indicators for future success rather than a blueprint for it, you’ll find going forward that it’s easier to make roster decisions before heavy bye weeks come into play and begin boxing you into certain moves. For instance…
Former Bengals quarterback and erstwhile Harvard man Ryan Fitzpatrick: He’s still rockin’ the wild Grizzly Adams-style hipster beard and voluminous brain as a member of the Buccaneers, but he will not rock the record books and total 6,552 passing yards and 64 TDs, which he’s on pace for. The 35-year-old may not even be the Bucs’ starting QB in the coming weeks. He’s viewed as Jameis Winston’s very capable backup. Winston, the former Heisman Trophy winner and first overall pick in the 2015 draft, is serving a three-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. He averaged 316 passing yards, two TDs and 20 fantasy points per game over the final five weeks last season and had a top-10 fantasy week in nearly half his starts. He’s still the Bucs’ QB of the future if not when he returns. If you’re waiting on Winston, get Fitz for a savvy handcuff if he’s still available. The big takeaway is the Bucs may have to go to the air a lot so definitely believe in receivers Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson and to some extent Chris Godwin and tight end O.J. Howard, who’s owned in just 25 percent of 12-team leagues.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes: The strong-armed bombardier has thrown a league-leading 10 touchdowns, two more than Fitzpatrick. He’s The Man in Kansas City but he’s also on pace for an impossible 80 TDs. If you don’t have him and he’s available in your league (he was unowned in 25 percent of 12-team leagues nationally before Week 2), you better get him this week. Then temper your expectations and get ready to fade him a bit. Even so, Mahomes is just the latest example of how you can get a solid every-week QB by waiting to take one late in the draft. Also, Chiefs receiver Sammy Watkins is still available in some 12-team leagues.
Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay: At age 24, he is an “old” rookie, just nine days older than 2015 first-round draft pick Todd Gurley of the Rams. That cuts both ways. In his attempt to leapfrog two backs ahead of him on the Denver depth chart, Lindsay became the first undrafted player in league history with 100-plus scrimmage yards in each of his first two games. But it’s a good bet that he won’t finish the season with 1,704 total yards, which is what his per-game average projects to. There’s no guarantee he’ll continue holding off more ballyhooed and younger rookie teammate Royce Freeman (age 22), who started the first two games and matched Lindsay’s carry and rushing yards totals Week 1 (15 for 71). Both backs have one touchdown. Phillips’ edge is in the passing game where he’s been targeted four times with three catches compared to zeroes for Freeman. It’s probably too late but you might want to handcuff them, and put Devontae Booker on the back burner during a fluid situation in Denver.
Bears running back Jordan Howard: He won’t continue averaging 58.5 rushing yards per game. Barring injury, he should do much better from here on out while scoring in the neighborhood of 10 TDs and enjoying an uptick in the passing game. The Bears are much-improved on defense with the addition of world-beater Khalil Mack, potentially placing Howard in a great position to salt away games on the ground when the Bears are leading. Look what Howard did his first two seasons while the Bears played mostly from behind. His big games are coming. Buy low from an inexperienced owner and maybe check in on owners of David Johnson and Leonard Fournette, as well.
Seahawks tight end Will Dissly: Featured here last week, it might be time to buy. He’s had five targets, three receptions, a long catch of at least 33 yards, and a touchdown EACH of the first two weeks while averaging 73.5 yards per game and 24.5 yards per catch. More and more, he’s looking like a breakout while offering further proof that you can wait and draft a tight end late, then snag a second one after the draft. It’s something I’ve always done and something I may do with the Falcons’ Austin Hooper or the Saints’ Benjamin Watson, both top-15-caliber tight ends in high-octane passing attacks who are currently underachieving.
Colts tight end Eric Ebron: With a TD each week, he’s making life miserable for owners of Jack Doyle, who was targeted twice as often Week 2 by quarterback Andrew Luck (Doyle has a 15-9 target lead through two games). This situation could flip anytime soon. I usually don’t recommend handcuffing tight ends but these guys are making a convincing case on a team that’s more suited to pass the football. Still, I’m casting some shade on an Ebron touchdown takeover in Indy (but I’m also thinking about a Vance McDonald-Jesse James tight end handcuff out of Pittsburgh).
Kickers: Sunday was a day of unrest for place kickers and some of them got the ax, to boot. Yep, there was something in the air Week 2: An unholy 19 missed kicks just on Sunday including seven extra points and several would-be game-winners. The Browns dumped Zane Gonzalez after his epic meltdown. Likewise, Daniel Carlson is a former Viking with little fanfare. Last year’s top-scoring kicker, the Rams’ Greg Zuerlein, didn’t even play Sunday. He’s out a couple weeks with a balky groin. May this be the last year we all take a kicker before the last pick in the draft.
Oh, and be careful and don’t drop a good kicker too early. The Ravens’ elite Justin Tucker was glacier-slow out the gate last year, averaging 4.25 fantasy points the first month with nothing above eight any week, and was dropped by a lot of impatient owners. After that, he averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game with nary a week below nine and finished in the top five at his position. So, for now, hold on to Chris Boswell and Matt Bryant and maybe Will Lutz and Graham Gano.
