NFL Fantasy Football Lister Week 1: Say no to Zero RB Plan — go for the great running backs

By Marc Hardin
NKyTribune contributor

In your fantasy football draft preparation, you may have come across a playing strategy, what some folks are calling the Zero RB Plan, which advises steering clear of running backs until later in the draft. The premises are these: there are more running back committees in today’s NFL, running backs are more injury prone than other players especially wide receivers, and the league is trending more toward passing, therefore shifting the overall balance of scoring power to receivers.

As I’ve witnessed in drafts this summer, some fantasy owners are taking the best available wide receivers off the draft board in the first two rounds before they start drafting middle-tier running backs which they begin accumulating sometimes as late as the fourth or fifth round. This is not something I advise, especially if you have a top-four draft pick that virtually guarantees you an elite, every-down running back. The NFL may be throwing it more but that doesn’t mean running backs have taken a back seat to receivers in the first few rounds of the draft. When many a league can be won with the right backfield selections in the first two rounds, giving the car keys to a bell-cow back is still a great way to jump-start your championship-winning run.

Considering the proliferation of three-wide receiver sets and the dwindling number of three-down backs — there’s fewer than 20 of them — what you should be doing tonight or this weekend or during your in-season redrafts is securing one or two of the bell-cows then pick from among a large group of potentially successful receivers no earlier than the third round (only after building a strong base of three WRs and three RBs should you begin drafting tight ends, quarterbacks, a defense and a kicker). The best way you can do that is going RB-RB the first two rounds.

Plenty of times I’ve opened my draft by going RB-RB-RB with my first three picks and I’ve rarely regretted it because injuries happen. They will happen to your team this season. It’s virtually guaranteed. You have to be prepared with depth and realize that it’s easier during the season to snag a decent replacement WR off the waiver wire than it is unearthing a solid replacement at RB. Typically, backs will also cost you more in trades.

So, prepare yourself with roster depth at all positions, not just running back. Better yet, build smart depth. Utilize running back handcuffs by securing the services of your top backs’ natural backup, roster size permitting. Take a flier on a young back with upside after you land your mainstays so you can build in some value. If you doubt a projected starter, like the Lions’ Kerryon Johnson, take his backup, LeGarrette Blount, instead much later in the draft. Stay on top of every NFL depth chart, game-to-game usage and injuries so you can be the first to spot in-season trends that you can exploit to your advantage.

And read this column every Wednesday. It won’t always be this long and it won’t always be about running backs but I guarantee it will be helpful knowing the playing strategies of a veteran championship-winning owner who knows the football players and who doesn’t always agree with more famous advice.

Talent and potentially high volume are leading indicators of future fantasy success for running backs. Here is a division-by-division look at players currently residing at the top of the depth chart at all three spots: running back, third-down back and goal-line back. Make sure you have at least one of these bell-cow backs, ideally two. Also keep in mind that there are several excellent options from among backs who don’t quite yet fit this description, guys like rookie Saquon Barkley of the Giants, the Eagles’ Jay Ajayi and the Vikings’ Dalvin Cook.

AFC East

Kenyan Drake, Dolphins: A yards-after-contact beast, he ranked eighth among running backs in total fantasy points and sixth in total touches over the final six weeks of last season and he looked good in preseason. The Dolphins’ Adam Gase has a coaching and coordinating history of greatly improving running back play (see Knowshon Moreno, C.J. Anderson, Matt Forte, Jay Ajayi) while showing a preference for leaning on one back. In a limited sample size over the past two seasons behind a mediocre line, Drake’s average of 5.0 yards per carry is tied for best by any back with at least 150 carries. Only injuries or persistent Frank Gore carries will keep him from a breakout season.

LeSean McCoy, Bills: He’s not on the commissioner’s exempt list, meaning he’s eligible to play Week 1. He could still find his way onto the exempt list later in the season following an investigation of a suspicious July home invasion in which his ex-girlfriend said she was hurt. Until then, he’s an aging workhorse back with high volume on a mediocre offense with potentially bad QB play. When healthy, he always shows up. All but three weeks last season resulted in double-digit fantasy points.

AFC North

Le’Veon Bell, Steelers: Through Tuesday, he had not ended his holdout. When he arrives, he should be the same guy, producing at a league-leading clip with a chip on his shoulder and taking some steam out of the James Conner sleeper talk. Conner, though he’s no DeAngelo Williams, may be a useful handcuff because injuries happen to holdouts too.

AFC South

Leonard Fournette, Jaguars: I like him but let me just say that I think he’s being over-projected. He averaged just 3.9 yards per carry last season and missed three games (after missing several games due to injury his senior year in college). Take away his 90-yard TD run last season and he averaged 3.5 yards per carry. He barely got to 1,000 rushing yards (1,040). He averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on 70 postseason totes but did score four touchdowns. He doesn’t catch a ton of passes (36) so generally he’s not going to add much value in points-per-reception leagues. He’s projected to score double-digit TDs but that’s not a slam dunk although he had 10 last year. He’s really good and he could start strong just temper your season-long expectations for his second NFL go-round.

Lamar Miller, Texans: He didn’t look so great over the final four games after running out of gas last season in a larger role. But he could be useful as a high volume back in an offense run by a healthy Deshaun Watson while injured back D’Onta Foreman is out. By most accounts, Miller looked quicker during preseason than at any point last season so there’s some life left in those legs.

AFC West

Melvin Gordon, Chargers: Like Fournette, he overcomes a low yards-per-carry average with high volume usage, especially in the passing game. So, by all means, draft with confidence even though Gordon had just two 100-yard rushing games last season. Just make sure you get Austin Ekeler too.

Kareem Hunt, Chiefs: He had a head-turning start last season and a fast finish but his owners suffered Weeks 8-13 when division races were being decided. Is this a sign of frustrating inconsistency to come? And which is the real Hunt? Well, he’s somewhere in between really great and above average but week-to-week you may not know which you’ll get. He’s also playing on an offense in transition with a new and largely untested starting quarterback.

NFC East

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys: Get ready for the Zeke Express. If you don’t get him in the draft, try trading for him. If you’re lucky enough to land him, it may not be a bad idea to roster his backup Rod Smith just in case Zeke’s off-field troubles resurface. Only 16 running backs gave you more fantasy points than Smith while Elliott sat last year.

NFC North

Jordan Howard, Bears: One of the few non-pass-catching backs on a losing team I’ve been drafting over the past few years because he’s shown that he can be productive despite his surrounding cast. Now that the Bears are getting better, I’m all in on Howard.

Jamaal Williams, Packers: He’s going late in drafts but he’s still a starting running back on a high-scoring team with the best quarterback in the NFC so I’ve been waiting and adding him as my fourth of fifth running back depending on league size. Then I snag Aaron Jones, who I believe is the better running back of the two, with the very next pick.

NFC South

Devonta Freeman, Falcons: He still gets a ton of carries in the red zone but sometimes he doesn’t shown up with seven weeks scoring fewer than 10 points last season. That’s a lot of whiffs for a big-time back and Tevin Coleman excels on third down while taking some of Freeman’s carries between the 20s.

Alvin Kamara, Saints: Very productive, incredibly efficient and fun to have on your team, just realize that his qualitative numbers from last year aren’t sustainable and Mark Ingram will be back from suspension after four games, putting a bit of a kibosh on Kamara’s impending all-world status.

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers: This year’s Alvin Kamara with the one exception that it’s not coming completely out of nowhere.

NFC West

Chris Carson, Seahawks: This is tentative with Rashaad Penny back from a preseason broken finger. Carson is coming off a broken leg suffered during last season’s potential breakout. There is no greater predictor of future injury than past injury. That said, the Seahawks like to run the football.

Todd Gurley, Rams: I think Zeke Elliott is going to have a bigger season in part because he’s going to see his number called on more passing plays and the Cowboys’ defense is much worse than the Rams. I don’t think Gurley is going to be as good as last year’s stats. Gurley is still going to be plenty good, mind you. My top four running backs in standard leagues: 1. Elliott, 2. Gurley, 3. Bell. 4. David Johnson.

David Johnson, Cardinals: If he bounces back, great. You have one of the most versatile and productive backs on the planet. If he doesn’t completely bounce back on a potentially bad Cardinals offense, you may not get full value for your top-four pick. Buyer beware.

Alfred Morris, 49ers: By default after the loss of injured Jerick McKinnon. Was an afterthought before that. In his defense, Morris had a lot of success under coach Kyle Shanahan in Washington. He gained 250 rushing yards (127 in Week 13) with a TD in three games last season as Zeke Elliott’s replacement in Dallas. He could start strong but he’s a long shot for sustained success.

If you want to better guarantee running back success throughout the season, create as much depth as possible on your roster by drafting a lot of them. Injuries and ineffectiveness are inevitable, so try to have more running backs than receivers (at least one more) and try to lock down one or two NFL backfields by getting a bell-cow back and his immediate backup.

Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman, Falcons: This should be automatic by now for Freeman devotees. Coleman is a top-20-caliber back in his own right.

Jamaal Williams/Aaron Jones, Packers: Williams was the NFL’s ninth-best north-south runner last year according to Next Gen Stats. Jones, who had a much better yards-per-carry average (5.53 to 3.63), will be back from suspension after four games. The Packers are going to score a lot of points this season.

Derrick Henry/Dion Lewis, Titans: If one gets hurt, boom, you’ve got a full-time bell-cow back. Henry is a monster waiting to happen. Lewis is a metrics darling. He’s one of the best north-south runners in the game according to Next Gen Stats and was the best back last year according to his Football Outsiders Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement score, which was five points better than Todd Gurley and 18 points better than Alvin Kamara, by the way.

Dalvin Cook/Latavius Murray, Vikings: Cook drafters are sleeping on Murray. He must be taken if you draft Cook, who already has a history of injuries.

Chris Carson/Rashaad Penny, Seahawks: One should be drafted with the other. Period. There is no use having one and not the other.

Jay Ajayi/Corey Clement, Eagles: Clement makes for a nice sleeper pick in a potentially high volume offense and Ajayi has not been 100 percent during preseason.

Melvin Gordon/Austin Ekeler, Chargers: Because of Ekeler’s upside, this combo is safe as milk.

Christian McCaffrey/C.J. Anderson, Panthers: I’m on board with a McCaffrey explosion as the result of greater usage but C.J. is a proven runner with plenty of gas left in the tank. He’s only 27 and had his first 1,000-yard rushing season just last year.

Joe Mixon/Giovani Bernard, Bengals: Few signs yet of a big Mixon breakout and mixed signals from the rest of the offense. Call me crazy but I’m not that jazzed about the Bengals’ running game with the offensive line in its current state.

Royce Freeman/Devontae Booker, Broncos: Freeman won the preseason edge over Booker and is probably the much better back but will it matter on the Broncos.

Kenyan Drake/Frank Gore, Dolphins: Potential record-breaker or a lovely swan song could make some nice music in Miami if coach Gase continues to prefer a lead-back system.

Alex Collins/Javorius Allen, Ravens: Collins came out of nowhere last season and was sixth in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement score. Allen, already a points-per-reception standout, is talented enough to have the same kind of break out but with greater versatility after totaling four 18-points-or-better performances last year. Just keep in mind that Kenneth Dixon’s also in the mix.

Patriots: As usual, talent abounds with Sony Michel, James White and former Bengals Rex Burkhead and Jeremy Hill. And yes, the occasional Patriots back snags a lot of goal-line carries, even racks up a slew of touchdowns but rarely rushes for 1,000 yards. In the past 10 seasons with the same head coach, just three Pats backs have topped 800 yards on the ground. Honestly, do you trust Bill Belichick with his running back use? And, do you feel lucky? If so, take the Patriot plunge and learn to hate The Hoodie.

Jets: Gang Green looks sick with Bilal Powell, Isaiah Crowell and Trenton Cannon atop the depth chart. I’d recommend staying away unless you play in the deepest of leagues.

Browns: It all comes down to how much Carlos Hyde has left in the tank and can he stay healthy. The Browns figure to be playing from behind in a lot of games, probably once again making pass-catching back Duke Johnson the more valuable Browns back in the long run. Nick Chubb might have some value if Hyde gets hurt but the team around him won’t change. Let somebody else invest in the Browns. There’s usually one who will.

Colts: Marlon Mack doesn’t excite me and and he’s already iffy for Week 1 with a hamstring issue. He could be iffy all season, just like the Colts, and I usually shy away from drafting borderline-talented backs on bad teams. With Jordan Wilkins, Nyheim Hines and Christine Michael being nearly indecipherable on the depth chart behind Mack plus Robert Turbin coming back from injury, this looks like a backfield to stay away from.

Broncos: There’s a 50-50 chance Royce Freeman takes the starting job and runs with it after a promising preseason, meaning there’s a 50-50 chance Devontae Booker holds off the heralded rookie. It’s perhaps the most promising backfield on this list if you’re speculating on runners with upside but for now it’s looking like a time share. If I do happen to have Freeman fall into my lap, I’m not confident in Booker as a handcuff.

Raiders: Loved Marshawn Lynch in his prime. Nowadays, not so much especially on a Raiders team that just lost its best defender, Khalil Mack, to the Bears. If this winds up being a Raiders rebuild and/or train wreck with a suspect defense under Jon Gruden, Lynch’s days as fantasy-relevant could be numbered with QB Derek Carr always playing catch-up.

Redskins: Adrian Peterson has surprised us before but the odds are long that either he or Chris Thompson become a season-long force now that first-round pick Derrius Guice is out for the season with an ACL tear. With Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine around, this looks like a running back committee without further attrition.

Lions: Quick, name a Lions 1,000-yard rusher not named Barry Sanders. Exactly. Kerryon Johnson’s promising preseason aside, this is still a pass-first team with QB Matthew Stafford and a slew of targets and a defense that probably won’t allow the offense to salt away too many games on the ground. The Lions haven’t had a 900-yard rusher since 2013. Six different men in the franchise’s 89-year history have rushed for 1,000 yards. However, the Lions do remain a place to look for pass-catching backs named Theo Riddick in deeper PPR leagues.

Buccaneers: I get the feeling that Peyton Barber, Jacquizz Rodgers and Ronald Jones are going to be splitting carries for a weak Bucs offense, potentially splitting their fantasy value, unless two get hurt in which case the healthy one would become a player to monitor.

49ers: I never really liked their ground prospects from the outset and like them even less without Jerick McKinnon who is out for the season with a torn ACL. Let someone else gamble on Alfred Morris.

Last year’s running back receptions leaders:

Just a reminder that Johnson (behind Carlos Hyde), White (behind whoever probably Sony Michel), Cohen (behind Jordan Howard), and Riddick (behind Kerryon Johnson or LeGarrette Blount) should not be viewed as viable handcuffs. At best, they are flex options in standard and PPR leagues, and potential RB3/RB4 on your deeper league rosters.

I know they are getting long in the tooth but don’t count out Frank Gore (Dolphins), Adrian Peterson (Redskins) and LeGarrette Blount (Lions) the first two months when fluke things can happen. Just take them late in the draft, and don’t expect anything in return if you try to trade them after they break down.

Who is this year’s Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara, a rookie drafted in the third round or later who surprises from the get-go while far exceeding expectations the rest of the way? Here are my preseason rankings, with the idea that entering Week 1 most of these guys after Freeman are late-bench roster stashes. If you can’t justify the roster space in a limited roster league, be ready to pounce once things begin to bounce their way.